Alibaba Deep Dive

Alibaba today is a bit of an enigma with investor trepidation stemming from both inadequate competitive moats and fears that regulators could curtail this “monopoly.” Adding to the confusion, Alibaba likely houses more billion-dollar businesses than any other company.

The fear of competition is real though: PDD is gaining share on lower end commerce, JD.com is relentlessly attacking the high-end, Meituan is going after high-frequency local, and Kuaishou, Douyin, and others threaten share in discovery commerce. Is Alibaba overearning, having enjoyed a period of relatively muted competition?

In our analysis, we cut through the dozens of different businesses and clearly lay out what the market implied valuation of their core commerce business is. From here, we layer in all of our qualitative assessment based off of dozens of conversations with industry experts, ex-employees, merchants, and consumers to conclude how well Alibaba is positioned to fend off the onslaught of competition.

Please see our free sample reports on Sea Limited and Bilibili to get a sense of the quality of our research. Our BABA report, however, is almost twice as long as either given how intricate the company is (~25,000 words). Subscribe today to read more! Subscribing members get this report and a new one on an Asian stock every month! It’s just $29/month and cancelable at any time. (Table of Contents below).

You can find the following in the report:  

1. Introduction

   • Founding History

   • Business Background

2. The Business

   • Core Commerce

     • China Retail

       • Taobao and Tmall

       • Retail Monetization: Alimama

       • Alibaba, Just a Media Company?

       • Competition

       • New Retail

     • China Wholesale

     • International Retail

     • International Wholesale

     • Local Consumer Services

     • Cainiao

     • Other: Alihealth

   • Cloud Computing

   • Digital Media and Entertainment

   • Innovation Initiatives and Other

3. Investments

4. Sum of the Parts

5. Thesis

6. Models and Growth Analysis

   • Commerce Revenue Build

   • Margin & EPS

   • Summary Model

7. Valuation Conclusion

8. Risks

9. Cash Flow Analysis

   • Stock Based Compensation

   • Free Cash Flow

10. Regulation and Anti-Trust

11. Management and Culture

12. Conclusion